In the late Ming Dynasty, no matter how prosperous commerce became, it could not save society from collapse brought on by the breakdown of agriculture; in fact, it only added fuel to the fire by introducing even more destabilizing factors.

Moreover, there’s another point: the commercial prosperity and massive influx of silver in the late Ming did not bring any real benefit to the national treasury. The state’s finances remained strained. This was because the profits from trade were almost entirely divided up among the big merchants and the scholar-officials. The common people and the government, on the other hand, became victims of inflation.

On one hand, the Ming Dynasty was founded as a society dominated by small and medium landlords and self-sufficient farmers, and its fiscal revenue always took a simple peasant society as its reference point. The various systems established from this smallholder perspective, including the fiscal system, were very difficult to adapt as society developed, and officials generally lacked the ability to cope with changing circumstances.

These scholar-officials often felt completely out of touch with the development or decline of the popular economy, groping in the dark, not knowing where to start. Let alone dealing with the complex changes of a commercial society. Naturally, the country’s tax revenue and budget could not increase or decrease accordingly. Many Ming officials were completely unaware of the changes in commercial wealth in society, and had no concept of increasing taxes on commerce; they would just habitually focus on the poor farmers.

On the other hand, in the late Ming, the entire national economy had already shifted its focus to industry and commerce. By this time, the scholar-official group had become entangled with the merchants, and to a certain extent, the scholar-officials were even the spokesmen for the merchants. They divided up a large share of the commercial profits, and if the court or the emperor ever thought of increasing state revenue from commerce, they would face fierce obstruction from the scholar-official group.

Those who managed to withstand their obstruction, such as George Washington, were fiercely criticized for imposing the “three extra levies,” opening up mining and salt taxes, and increasing commercial taxes—by the scholar-official group, the big merchants, and later, the self-serving lackeys of the Tartars.

To be honest, Samuel Howard did not support the “three extra levies,” as this increased the burden on the peasants, who were already heavily burdened. But as for opening up mining and salt taxes and increasing commercial taxes, Samuel Howard was in favor.

Merchants and scholars at the time possessed 90% of the nation’s wealth—so what’s wrong with them paying some taxes? They’re all citizens of the country; do merchants and officials have no obligation to pay taxes, and must all the burden be placed on the farmers? Although opening up mining and salt taxes did cause some harm to merchants, between two evils, choose the lesser! It’s better to have the merchants cry than the farmers. If merchants complain, the country suffers minor unrest; if farmers complain and rebel, the country faces the disaster of destruction.

This was especially evident with Abraham Lincoln. Because he was misled by the scholar-official group, he greatly reduced commercial taxes and shifted most of the tax burden onto the common people, making the rich richer and leaving the poor with no way to survive. Although he gained the reputation of a wise ruler among some scholars, this only intensified social contradictions and accelerated the pace toward national ruin.

In the end, Abraham Lincoln lost his country and his life, and those scholar-officials and big merchants who forgot righteousness for personal gain also met bad ends. Some died by the blades of Li Zicheng and other bandits, some by the swords of the Manchu invaders, and others became money-grubbing lackeys and submissive subjects. The wealth they had painstakingly accumulated—tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, even a million taels of silver—became someone else’s property, or turned to dust. As the saying goes, “If the skin is gone, to what can the hair attach?”—that’s exactly the case.

Therefore, before agriculture is stable, grain is sufficient, and the national fiscal system is rational, the more prosperous commerce becomes, the greater the negative effects may be.

Conversely, if agriculture develops, grain is abundant, and people’s needs become rich and diverse, industry and commerce will naturally develop as well. At that point, commercial prosperity cannot be suppressed even if you want to. Moreover, commerce will be well integrated with agriculture, further promoting social development.

Looking around the world, it’s the same everywhere. A typical example is England in the 17th and 18th centuries.

It is generally believed that England’s agricultural revolution led to the industrial revolution. At that time, the huge demand for grain from the growing population of England and Europe led to the enclosure movement by both private individuals and the state. The large tenant farm model gained absolute dominance in the English countryside. This model greatly promoted the development of English agriculture, ushering in a golden age.

England’s agricultural revolution also created the necessary preconditions for the industrial revolution. It not only provided the food and raw materials needed for the industrial revolution, but also created a large free labor force and a vast domestic market, and accumulated substantial capital for the industrial revolution.

In the end, the development of English agriculture accelerated the flourishing of English commerce. The two merged and promoted each other, and when development reached a certain point and productivity could no longer meet market demand, it was only natural to improve relevant technologies—thus, the machine-based industrial revolution began.

Modern England’s development history is a relatively successful one. Samuel Howard hoped to draw useful lessons for himself and his country from the successful development history of others. That night, he kept looking up relevant materials until his computer ran out of power, and only then did he reluctantly go to bed.

That night, he also mapped out his grand plan for future development.

Chapter 8: The Daughter-in-law Not Yet Married